Advancing STAR Mobility in the AI Economy

AI is not just changing individual jobs. It is reshaping career pathways that provide upward mobility for workers, meet employers’ talent needs, and drive regional growth. New research explores why that matters for the more than 70 million workers Skilled Through Alternative Routes (STARs), how AI exposure is concentrated in key Gateway occupations, and why local leaders must act now to sustain and build the pathways of the future.

A pink and yellow abstract image of an office with people working, chatting and walking around. Above their heads are clouds of network connections. It was painted with guache and drawn with pencils.

Photo credit: Jamillah Knowles & Digit / Pink Office / Licenced by CC-BY 4.0

Much of the conversation about AI and work has focused on which jobs will be automated, augmented, or eliminated. But that frame is too narrow. What matters for workers, employers, and regional economies is whether AI weakens or strengthens the pathways that connect lower-wage work to better jobs.

AI is reshaping pathways, not just jobs

Career pathways are sequences of roles through which workers build skills, accumulate experience, and access higher-wage opportunities. The quality and durability of these pathways are central to mobility across the labor market.

These pathways are especially important for STARs—workers without a four-year degree whose economic mobility depends on the transferability and recognition of their skills as they move between jobs. Within these pathways, Gateway occupations play a pivotal role. They provide accessible entry from lower-wage work while enabling transitions into higher-wage roles and serving as a critical source of experienced talent for employers.

But AI will not affect these roles in isolation. Because jobs function as interconnected stepping stones, disruption in a key occupation can alter opportunities both upstream and downstream across entire pathways.

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AI may disrupt key pathways for STARs

See top 3 skills-based upward pathways for Receptionists and Information Clerks below:

Almost half of workers highly exposed to AI are STARs

Some 15.6 million—or one-fifth of the nation’s 70 million STARs—work in roles highly exposed to AI.

STARs make up 43% of all workers highly exposed to AI, meaning AI’s impact will be concentrated among workers who rely most on pathways for mobility.

At the same time, 23 million STARs have low adaptive capacity, meaning limited ability to weather job displacement and transition to new work.

Critically, around 3.5 million STARs are both highly exposed to AI and have low adaptive capacity, accounting for 67% of workers in this most vulnerable group.

67%

of workers most vulnerable to AI are STARs

43%

of workers highly exposed to AI are STARs

These changes will be navigated locally.

Economic mobility does not occur in the abstract. It happens in places. Career pathways depend on coordination among employers, training providers, intermediaries, and workforce systems—all of which are local. Approximately 73% of workers live and work in the same county, meaning the strength of pathways is shaped at the regional level.

The concentration of STARs in AI-exposed Gateway roles varies across regions, creating distinct local challenges. Some metros face higher exposure due to concentrations in administrative and clerical roles, while others are less exposed due to different occupational mixes. Maintaining upward mobility in the face of AI will therefore require strong and grounded local efforts.

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AI exposure in Gateway occupations varies widely across metros, shaping uneven risks and opportunities for STARs

Gateway occupations offer skill-based stepping stones for upward mobility for workers Skilled Through Alternative Routes.

Questions we need to answer:

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How and where is AI reconfiguring job pathways?
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What skills are becoming more valuable and to whom are they accessible?
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What does "high-road" AI adoption look like in practice?
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What forms of collective action are required to sustain regional resilience?

We stand at a crossroads.

The question is not simply which jobs are disrupted, but how AI reshapes the career pathways that connect workers to higher-wage opportunities.

If pathways narrow or disappear, advancement opportunities will decline, talent pipelines will weaken, and regional economies will face growing constraints.

Decisions being made now about job design, hiring practices, and skill development will determine whether pathways remain strong and accessible.

Leaders must act now to ensure AI strengthens pathways for all workers by supporting worker learning, maintaining access to key Gateway roles, and building new routes into higher-wage work.

Discover More Research

Activating STAR Talent Across Regions: STAR Mobility Compass

The STAR Mobility Compass shows how regional leaders can expand job pathways, improve wages, and ensure access to emerging work so more workers who are Skilled Through Alternative Routes can move into better-paying jobs.

Look to the STARs: Activating Talent in a Regional Market

Employers can find the talent they need, transform their local and regional labor markets, and boost STAR mobility by embracing a collective approach to skills-based job pathways.